In the latest economic outlook, ANZ Bank has some optimistic forecasts about Vietnam's economy. Accordingly, with good figures of foreign direct investment (FDI), export, trade balance and domestic demand in November, the trend will go on in the coming time...
In the latest economic outlook, ANZ Bank has some optimistic forecasts about Vietnam’s economy. Accordingly, with good figures of foreign direct investment (FDI), export, trade balance and domestic demand in November, the trend will go on in the coming time.
Specifically, the 89.9% rise year-on-year in the registered FDI which focuses on production is a good sign. ANZ also expects that the increasing FDI will bring medium-term benefits for the production for export. ANZ says that news that the government is considering a higher maximum rate of foreign ownership in local businesses may raise FDI more.
Vietnam’s export in November also made a satisfactory increase of 18.9% year-on-year. The bank also believes that there may be a small trade surplus for the whole year and the big trade gap of USD15 billion in 2010 will not occur in short term and medium term.
ANZ’s researches also show some improvement in domestic operations. For instance, retail trade growth in November rose slightly to 12.2% compared to that in the beginning of the year or industrial production increased to 5.7% owning to the growth of production.
Remarkably, the bank ANZ forecasts a specific figure for Vietnam inflation in 2013. The figure also falls on the range of 6 – 8% but it is defined to be 6.6%.
The bank also expects that the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) will keep the refinancing interest rate at 7% till the first half of 2014.
T.T